Data as of November 5, 2026.
Key takeaways
- SPY fell 4.41% on November 5, its worst day of 2026 and its largest one-day fall since April 4, 2025. The day before, +1.65%, was one of the ten best days of the year.
- A fall of at least 1% in a day is common: 32 times a year on average since 1994, and 22 times so far in 2026.
- A fall of at least 4% is rarer but not rare: 5 of the last 10 years had at least one, and 13 of the 33 years since 1994.
- Seven of the ten best days of 2026 came within 10 days of one of the ten worst, and nine within 20.
- Since 1993, 70% of the ten best days came within 20 days of one of the ten worst.
1. How often does the market fall this much in a day?
A 1% drop is common. Since 1994, SPY has closed down at least 1% on 1,054 trading days, about 32 a year, and this year it has happened 22 times.
Trading days SPY fell at least 1% and 4%, by year
U.S. equities (SPY) total return, daily closes, by calendar year, 1994 to 2026; 2026 through November 5
A 4% drop is rarer, and it is not as rare as it feels on the day. There have been 49 since 1994, and 5 of the last 10 years had at least one: 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025 and 2026. They bunch. Sixteen of the 49 came in 2008 and nine in 2020, so two years account for half of them, and 20 of the 33 years had none at all. November 5 was the first of 2026.
The 1% series updates daily. Track it live at scatterplot.co.
2. The best and worst days of 2026 sit next to each other
The stretch that produced the worst day also produced one of the best. SPY fell 1.77% on October 30, rose 1.65% on November 4, then fell 4.41% on November 5, so three of the year's twenty most extreme days came inside five trading sessions.
Seven of 2026’s ten best days came within 10 days of a worst day
U.S. equities (SPY) total return, December 31, 2025 = 100, with each day’s return
That pattern runs through the whole year. Seven of the ten best days of 2026 came within 10 days of one of the ten worst, and nine within 20, a tighter version of the long-run pattern in the next section.
After November 5, SPY is up 8.33% for the year, with 109 up days out of 213, and it sits 5.92% below its October 6 record close.
3. What were the market's best and worst trading days since 1993?
The long-run version of the chart above is the table from our June post on market timing. It lists the ten best and ten worst days for SPY since 1993 and how close each came to a day on the opposite list.
The ten best days since 1993
| Date | Return | Nearest worst day |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2008 | +14.5% | 2 days after |
| Oct 28, 2008 | +11.7% | 13 days before |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +10.5% | 1,850 days before |
| Mar 24, 2020 | +9.1% | 8 days before |
| Mar 13, 2020 | +8.5% | 1 day before |
| Mar 23, 2009 | +7.2% | 112 days before |
| Nov 24, 2008 | +6.9% | 4 days before |
| Apr 6, 2020 | +6.7% | 21 days before |
| Nov 13, 2008 | +6.2% | 7 days after |
| Oct 20, 2008 | +6.0% | 5 days before |
The ten worst days since 1993
| Date | Return | Nearest best day |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2020 | −10.9% | 3 days before |
| Oct 15, 2008 | −9.8% | 2 days before |
| Mar 12, 2020 | −9.6% | 1 day after |
| Dec 1, 2008 | −8.9% | 7 days before |
| Sep 29, 2008 | −7.8% | 14 days after |
| Mar 9, 2020 | −7.8% | 4 days after |
| Nov 20, 2008 | −7.4% | 4 days after |
| Oct 27, 1997 | −7.2% | 4,004 days after |
| Aug 31, 1998 | −7.1% | 3,696 days after |
| Oct 9, 2008 | −7.0% | 4 days after |
SPY daily total returns since January 29, 1993; distance in calendar days to the nearest day on the opposite list. Source: Scatterplot Analytics. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fifteen of the twenty days fell in two stretches, September to December 2008 and March 2020. They came in bunches there too. Since 1993, 30% of the ten best days came within 5 days of one of the ten worst, 60% within 10 days and 70% within 20 days, measured the same way as the 2026 figures above.
SPY’s 10 best days within days of its 10 worst, 1993 to 2026
Share of the 10 best daily total returns since 1993 falling within 5, 10 and 20 calendar days of one of the 10 worst
This chart updates daily. Track it live at scatterplot.co.
The cost of being out for the good days, updated to November 5. Fully invested, SPY returned 10.7% a year since the start of 1994. Miss ten best days and it is 7.9%. Miss twenty and it is 6.1%, a reduction of 4.6 percentage points a year. Because the market's biggest gains and losses often occur close together, avoiding the worst days without also missing some of the best can be difficult.
SPY annualized return, missing the best days, 1994 to 2026
U.S. equities (SPY) total return, annualized from January 1994 to November 5, 2026, with the N best trading days removed
This chart updates daily. Track it live at scatterplot.co.
Conclusion
Market timing is hard, because the best and the worst days in the market tend to cluster.
Chart notes
- U.S. equities are represented by the SPY ETF. Daily returns are total returns, with dividends reinvested on the ex-dividend date, from the same series the Scatterplot portal uses. The November 5, 2026 figure uses that day's closing price against the November 4 close, with no dividend on either day.
- Down days. A day down at least 1% is a trading day on which SPY's total return was −1.00% or lower from the prior close. At least 4% is −4.00% or lower. Counts are by calendar year, 1994 to 2026, with 2026 through November 5, and the 1994 to 2025 average is 32.2 days a year.
- Best and worst days of 2026. The ten largest and ten smallest daily total returns from January 2 to November 5, 2026. "Within 10 days" means fewer than 10 calendar days from the nearest day on the opposite list, the rule the portal chart uses. Within 20 means fewer than 20.
- Since 1993. The long-run table and the clustering chart use the same SPY total-return series from January 29, 1993, redrawn here through November 5, 2026 on the portal's methods. The values match our June 26, 2026 post. The table measures distance in calendar days to the nearest day on the opposite list. The annualized-return chart starts on January 3, 1994, as the portal chart does, removes the N largest daily returns and annualizes over 32.8 years to November 5, 2026.
Sources
- Scatterplot Analytics, SPY daily total-return series (portal data), January 1993 to November 5, 2026
- Scatterplot Analytics, count of trading days SPY fell at least 1% and at least 4% by calendar year, 1994 to 2026, from the same series
- Scatterplot Analytics, ten best and ten worst daily returns of 2026 and the calendar-day distance between them, from the same series
- Scatterplot, "Why Market Timing Is So Hard: 70% of the best days in the market land near the worst ones", June 26, 2026, and the portal charts it uses
Important disclosures
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. References to SPY are provided to illustrate general market concepts. The historical figures are not a forecast. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Returns are based on SPY total returns and do not represent any specific account. They do not reflect taxes, transaction costs or advisory fees, which would lower them. ETF performance may differ from the underlying index because of fees and expenses. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate and are subject to market volatility. Data from third-party sources is believed reliable, but its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
